Carl Zeiss on the Future of Film

In article ,
Gordon Moat wrote:


Scott W wrote:
Gordon Moat wrote:


I think a really good way to imagine a worse case future is to look at
the fine art world and oil paints. I cannot just go to Target, WalMart,
CostCo, or the local Ritz to get oil paints. I have to go to a
specialized art store, or I need to buy through a catalogue or from
internet outlets. It is not convenient, so I need to plan ahead what
paints I need. Sometimes there will be a temporary shortage at the local
art store of certain colours. Oil paints for doing fine arts are
definitely a no growth industry, more dead than anyone could ever
imagine for film.



Well I don't think photography really ever had an effect on painting in
general. Are you talking about the effect that acrylic paints have had
on oil?



No. I am specifically addressing the supply problems of getting oil
paints. Acrylics are not much more available, though I notice cheap
varieties in just slightly more stores. There are two prominent makers
of oil paints, and several minor players; with acrylics there are a few
more . . . neither situation makes availability of oils or acrylics
convenient.

When you consider that the classic artists had to grind their own
pigments, mix their own paints, and make their own brushes, it's not so
bad for the modern artist. And you can go into many of the same stores
with consumer-oriented minilabs and buy sketchpads and watercolors. You
get oil paints at the pro shops.


An industry can be small and not have growth and still be in good
shape. An industry can not be in good shape lossing 30% of its market
a year. Will this settle out in time and if so when?


Perfect example: oil paints might be considered a semi stable market,
with only slightly year to year fluctuations. The film market has not
reached a bottom stability level, though it was at a high volume mass
market level for decades. Oil paints were never a mass market item.

For some reason, Macintosh software comes to mind. Smaller user base, but
fewer companies developing for it, so it can still be profitable for the
few to serve it.

Nice monologue about 5% versus 95% investors, by the way.

--
"You're not as dumb as you look. Or sound. Or our best testing
indicates." -- Monty Burns to Homer Simpson

Gregory L. Hansen wrote:
In article ,
Gordon Moat wrote:


Scott W wrote:

Gordon Moat wrote:


I think a really good way to imagine a worse case future is to look at
the fine art world and oil paints. I cannot just go to Target, WalMart,
CostCo, or the local Ritz to get oil paints. I have to go to a
specialized art store, or I need to buy through a catalogue or from
internet outlets. It is not convenient, so I need to plan ahead what
paints I need. Sometimes there will be a temporary shortage at the local
art store of certain colours. Oil paints for doing fine arts are
definitely a no growth industry, more dead than anyone could ever
imagine for film.



Well I don't think photography really ever had an effect on painting in
general. Are you talking about the effect that acrylic paints have had
on oil?



No. I am specifically addressing the supply problems of getting oil
paints. Acrylics are not much more available, though I notice cheap
varieties in just slightly more stores. There are two prominent makers
of oil paints, and several minor players; with acrylics there are a few
more . . . neither situation makes availability of oils or acrylics
convenient.


When you consider that the classic artists had to grind their own
pigments, mix their own paints, and make their own brushes, it's not so
bad for the modern artist. And you can go into many of the same stores
with consumer-oriented minilabs and buy sketchpads and watercolors. You
get oil paints at the pro shops.


Hey, great example. I guess since I only use oils, I am shopping at the
artists pro shops. Considering what I pay for brushes, and that they do
wear out quickly, certainly seems like "pro" prices.



An industry can be small and not have growth and still be in good
shape. An industry can not be in good shape lossing 30% of its market
a year. Will this settle out in time and if so when?


Perfect example: oil paints might be considered a semi stable market,
with only slightly year to year fluctuations. The film market has not
reached a bottom stability level, though it was at a high volume mass
market level for decades. Oil paints were never a mass market item.


For some reason, Macintosh software comes to mind. Smaller user base, but
fewer companies developing for it, so it can still be profitable for the
few to serve it.

Nice monologue about 5% versus 95% investors, by the way.


Thanks!

Ciao!

Gordon Moat
A G Studio
http://www.allgstudio.com