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Used MF Prices --- I Should be Happy but not



 
 
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  #11  
Old October 13th 04, 09:29 PM
Gordon Moat
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MATT WILLIAMS wrote:

I have been using and learning about MF now for about five years. I started
out with a Seagull and after reading about them and their limitations I sold
it and in the past few years I have picked up a Mamiya 645 with a couple of
extra lenses, A Yashica D with the a Yashinon lens, A very nice Agfa 6X6
with a Solinar lens folder that I had reconditioned with new bellows and
takes great pictures. I also own a Canon 7n 35mm camera and a Digital Rebel
300 that my wife bought me for Christmas last year. This is not meant to be
a thread on digital vs. MF. I use both and I like to use the histogram on
the Digital Rebel to give me a better idea on exposure for my MF pictures,
especially sunrises and pictures of mountains with snow on them. I take
mainly landscapes. I have been watching for years the prices of MF used
equipment fall 30-50% on ebay and KEH.


Check EBAY prices on 11 MP and 12 MP digital backs for medium format cameras.
Many in the 24 mm by 36 mm or even some 37 mm square CCD digital backs are
around the $2000 price level now. These backs offer active cooling to greatly
minimize noise, and many are also capable of four shot and sixteen shot modes.

Mamiya zoom lenses are now with in my
reach to purchase for my M645. I should be happy about this , but I am
wondering how long Fuji and Kodak will continue to make 120 film.


Since 620 and 127 film are still available, and some other really odd sizes are
still available, I would imagine that 120 film should not be a problem. As for
Fuji and Kodak, I would expect future film from Kodak to come mainly from Lucky
Film in China, and that Fuji might adopt a similar strategy. Anyway, going with
what everyone else is posting, I would guess that 20 years should be fairly
accurate (Kodak and Fuji), with smaller companies probably never stopping
production.


I still love MF and want to keep using film. I have a Epson 2450 (I know
it old, but it works) and can scan my slides and can have them printed or
blown up locally. I just purchased a 35mm slide scanner so I do the same as
the local photo shops don't want to take the time to set up their mini labs
to scan 35mm slides correctly. I have a lot of money invested in MF and am
thinking about a few more purchases. Yet, if I can not get the 120 film in a
few years it will be a waste to buy more lenses or another camera (been
thinking about a Fuji GA645) .


You might need to mail order your films in the near future, and then
refrigerate them until use. While that is not as convenient as just a short
trip to the store, I think mail order is becoming the norm. You might also
consider getting more into systems with removable backs, so you could get a
used digital back in the future.

Looks like Kodak has stopped all research on
developing new film.


Wrong, only "consumer" films. Their professional films continue to be
developed, and there should be at least one new release next year.

Where is Fuji at ? I have heard many times that there
will always be film made, but I am wondering at what price ?


In theory, moving production to China, or other locations, might save some
cost. However, competition will really drive costs, so as long as neither Kodak
nor Fuji have a monopoly, prices should be even with inflation. There has been
some speculation on Wallstreet that film prices might see a sudden drop in the
near future to gain back market share, or volume; though this might not happen.

If the demand
goes down these companies must make a profit.


Tough to find good figures on profits, though the recent public documents
provided by AGFA indicate that all film and photo finishing products generate
around 40% to 45% profits. Compared to most other products, especially
electronics, that is quite good, and leaves room to reduce prices and retain
some profits. I would also imagine that Fuji and Kodak might be more efficient
than AGFA, and their profits might be better with film and photo finishing
products. In other words, a 1/3 or 1/2 price reduction on film would still
generate a profit for those companies . . . I honestly cannot think of any
other product that could fit such a price reduction and still generate profits.

Bronica just stopped making
most of their MF cameras.


Tamron announced only the RF645 will continue, and all SLR Bronica cameras will
only have new parts and service for the next seven years (required by law).
While it might not be a good idea to buy a Bronica, if that worries you, the
reality is that your AGFA folder is even older, and can still be repaired. You
might actually look at some Bronica products used for some large discounted
prices. In the longer term, the loss of Bronica competition will make it easier
on the other new medium format products still being sold.

Does anyone know what the "official" or public
statements that film companies have make on there continued support of 120
(or 220) film.


Mostly, it seems that 220 film has been a lower volume that 120, with some 200
films being discontinued. If Kodak and Fuji abandon poorer selling emulsions,
there might be replacements from Eastern European companies, though that is
more of a wait and see approach. Mostly, announcements from Kodak could happen
each quarter, while Fuji tends to announce mostly on an annual basis. Check
investor information on either company to see forward looking statements.

Will Agfa photo (just spun off from the main company in a
management buyout) continue to make 120 film ?


The initial indication is that they will continue. The only rumour I have heard
is that Scala might be discontinued, though that has been stated in many places
for a few years.

Sorry for the long post, but
I still want to be shooting film ten years from now. Any feedback would be
appreciated . Matt


A worse case scenario is that the major film companies see more demand for
lower ISO films (either 50, 64, 100, 125, 160 and 200), and light demand for
high ISO films (320 to 400, and above). The theory behind that is those who
stay with film would do so because of the perceived quality, a judgement better
made on slower films than faster emulsions. You might see some high speed films
become unavailable in 120, and fewer choices near ISO 400. Mostly, it is too
early to tell, so I would not worry about any of this being possible for
another four years.

Ciao!

Gordon Moat
A G Studio
http://www.allgstudio.com

  #12  
Old October 13th 04, 09:29 PM
Gordon Moat
external usenet poster
 
Posts: n/a
Default

MATT WILLIAMS wrote:

I have been using and learning about MF now for about five years. I started
out with a Seagull and after reading about them and their limitations I sold
it and in the past few years I have picked up a Mamiya 645 with a couple of
extra lenses, A Yashica D with the a Yashinon lens, A very nice Agfa 6X6
with a Solinar lens folder that I had reconditioned with new bellows and
takes great pictures. I also own a Canon 7n 35mm camera and a Digital Rebel
300 that my wife bought me for Christmas last year. This is not meant to be
a thread on digital vs. MF. I use both and I like to use the histogram on
the Digital Rebel to give me a better idea on exposure for my MF pictures,
especially sunrises and pictures of mountains with snow on them. I take
mainly landscapes. I have been watching for years the prices of MF used
equipment fall 30-50% on ebay and KEH.


Check EBAY prices on 11 MP and 12 MP digital backs for medium format cameras.
Many in the 24 mm by 36 mm or even some 37 mm square CCD digital backs are
around the $2000 price level now. These backs offer active cooling to greatly
minimize noise, and many are also capable of four shot and sixteen shot modes.

Mamiya zoom lenses are now with in my
reach to purchase for my M645. I should be happy about this , but I am
wondering how long Fuji and Kodak will continue to make 120 film.


Since 620 and 127 film are still available, and some other really odd sizes are
still available, I would imagine that 120 film should not be a problem. As for
Fuji and Kodak, I would expect future film from Kodak to come mainly from Lucky
Film in China, and that Fuji might adopt a similar strategy. Anyway, going with
what everyone else is posting, I would guess that 20 years should be fairly
accurate (Kodak and Fuji), with smaller companies probably never stopping
production.


I still love MF and want to keep using film. I have a Epson 2450 (I know
it old, but it works) and can scan my slides and can have them printed or
blown up locally. I just purchased a 35mm slide scanner so I do the same as
the local photo shops don't want to take the time to set up their mini labs
to scan 35mm slides correctly. I have a lot of money invested in MF and am
thinking about a few more purchases. Yet, if I can not get the 120 film in a
few years it will be a waste to buy more lenses or another camera (been
thinking about a Fuji GA645) .


You might need to mail order your films in the near future, and then
refrigerate them until use. While that is not as convenient as just a short
trip to the store, I think mail order is becoming the norm. You might also
consider getting more into systems with removable backs, so you could get a
used digital back in the future.

Looks like Kodak has stopped all research on
developing new film.


Wrong, only "consumer" films. Their professional films continue to be
developed, and there should be at least one new release next year.

Where is Fuji at ? I have heard many times that there
will always be film made, but I am wondering at what price ?


In theory, moving production to China, or other locations, might save some
cost. However, competition will really drive costs, so as long as neither Kodak
nor Fuji have a monopoly, prices should be even with inflation. There has been
some speculation on Wallstreet that film prices might see a sudden drop in the
near future to gain back market share, or volume; though this might not happen.

If the demand
goes down these companies must make a profit.


Tough to find good figures on profits, though the recent public documents
provided by AGFA indicate that all film and photo finishing products generate
around 40% to 45% profits. Compared to most other products, especially
electronics, that is quite good, and leaves room to reduce prices and retain
some profits. I would also imagine that Fuji and Kodak might be more efficient
than AGFA, and their profits might be better with film and photo finishing
products. In other words, a 1/3 or 1/2 price reduction on film would still
generate a profit for those companies . . . I honestly cannot think of any
other product that could fit such a price reduction and still generate profits.

Bronica just stopped making
most of their MF cameras.


Tamron announced only the RF645 will continue, and all SLR Bronica cameras will
only have new parts and service for the next seven years (required by law).
While it might not be a good idea to buy a Bronica, if that worries you, the
reality is that your AGFA folder is even older, and can still be repaired. You
might actually look at some Bronica products used for some large discounted
prices. In the longer term, the loss of Bronica competition will make it easier
on the other new medium format products still being sold.

Does anyone know what the "official" or public
statements that film companies have make on there continued support of 120
(or 220) film.


Mostly, it seems that 220 film has been a lower volume that 120, with some 200
films being discontinued. If Kodak and Fuji abandon poorer selling emulsions,
there might be replacements from Eastern European companies, though that is
more of a wait and see approach. Mostly, announcements from Kodak could happen
each quarter, while Fuji tends to announce mostly on an annual basis. Check
investor information on either company to see forward looking statements.

Will Agfa photo (just spun off from the main company in a
management buyout) continue to make 120 film ?


The initial indication is that they will continue. The only rumour I have heard
is that Scala might be discontinued, though that has been stated in many places
for a few years.

Sorry for the long post, but
I still want to be shooting film ten years from now. Any feedback would be
appreciated . Matt


A worse case scenario is that the major film companies see more demand for
lower ISO films (either 50, 64, 100, 125, 160 and 200), and light demand for
high ISO films (320 to 400, and above). The theory behind that is those who
stay with film would do so because of the perceived quality, a judgement better
made on slower films than faster emulsions. You might see some high speed films
become unavailable in 120, and fewer choices near ISO 400. Mostly, it is too
early to tell, so I would not worry about any of this being possible for
another four years.

Ciao!

Gordon Moat
A G Studio
http://www.allgstudio.com

  #13  
Old October 14th 04, 10:37 AM
Lassi Hippeläinen
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Posts: n/a
Default

Gordon Moat wrote:
...
In theory, moving production to China, or other locations, might save some
cost.


That won't help. The main cost is due to distribution, not manufacture.

...
A worse case scenario is that the major film companies see more demand for
lower ISO films (either 50, 64, 100, 125, 160 and 200), and light demand for
high ISO films (320 to 400, and above).


I doubt that. In terms of performance, the fast emulsions are still far
ahead the digital detectors that get noisy above ISO400. And all
disposable cameras are loaded with ISO400 or faster.

-- Lassi
  #14  
Old October 14th 04, 10:37 AM
Lassi Hippeläinen
external usenet poster
 
Posts: n/a
Default

Gordon Moat wrote:
...
In theory, moving production to China, or other locations, might save some
cost.


That won't help. The main cost is due to distribution, not manufacture.

...
A worse case scenario is that the major film companies see more demand for
lower ISO films (either 50, 64, 100, 125, 160 and 200), and light demand for
high ISO films (320 to 400, and above).


I doubt that. In terms of performance, the fast emulsions are still far
ahead the digital detectors that get noisy above ISO400. And all
disposable cameras are loaded with ISO400 or faster.

-- Lassi
  #15  
Old October 14th 04, 03:40 PM
jjs
external usenet poster
 
Posts: n/a
Default

"Gordon Moat" wrote in message
...

[...]
In theory, moving production to China, or other locations, might save some
cost. However, competition will really drive costs, so as long as neither
Kodak
nor Fuji have a monopoly, prices should be even with inflation. [...]


That can be true with a publicly held company, but in aggressive markets
private companies, for example some Japanese efforts, they will accept
considerable loss far long than a public American company can sustain and
thereby win the market.


  #16  
Old October 14th 04, 03:40 PM
jjs
external usenet poster
 
Posts: n/a
Default

"Gordon Moat" wrote in message
...

[...]
In theory, moving production to China, or other locations, might save some
cost. However, competition will really drive costs, so as long as neither
Kodak
nor Fuji have a monopoly, prices should be even with inflation. [...]


That can be true with a publicly held company, but in aggressive markets
private companies, for example some Japanese efforts, they will accept
considerable loss far long than a public American company can sustain and
thereby win the market.


  #17  
Old October 15th 04, 12:45 AM
Stacey
external usenet poster
 
Posts: n/a
Default

MATT WILLIAMS wrote:

The main point of the post is how long will 120 film be made ? I don't
want to spend a 1000 dollars on equipment that I will not be able to get
film for
in two years or so.


Think of it this way, in 5 years your digital rebel will be worth maybe $100
so what's the difference? And no 120 film isn't going to disappear in 2
years.
--

Stacey
  #18  
Old October 15th 04, 03:03 PM
jjs
external usenet poster
 
Posts: n/a
Default

"Stacey" wrote in message
...
MATT WILLIAMS wrote:

The main point of the post is how long will 120 film be made ? I don't
want to spend a 1000 dollars on equipment that I will not be able to get
film for
in two years or so.


Think of it this way, in 5 years your digital rebel will be worth maybe
$100
so what's the difference? And no 120 film isn't going to disappear in 2
years.


CORRECT! And I'll bet that digital Rebel will more likely be $25. There
will be bins of digital cameras at Goodwill just like there are bins of old
point-n-shoots now... if they will even take them!


  #19  
Old October 15th 04, 03:03 PM
jjs
external usenet poster
 
Posts: n/a
Default

"Stacey" wrote in message
...
MATT WILLIAMS wrote:

The main point of the post is how long will 120 film be made ? I don't
want to spend a 1000 dollars on equipment that I will not be able to get
film for
in two years or so.


Think of it this way, in 5 years your digital rebel will be worth maybe
$100
so what's the difference? And no 120 film isn't going to disappear in 2
years.


CORRECT! And I'll bet that digital Rebel will more likely be $25. There
will be bins of digital cameras at Goodwill just like there are bins of old
point-n-shoots now... if they will even take them!


  #20  
Old October 16th 04, 01:39 AM
Stacey
external usenet poster
 
Posts: n/a
Default

jjs wrote:

"Stacey" wrote in message
...
MATT WILLIAMS wrote:

The main point of the post is how long will 120 film be made ? I don't
want to spend a 1000 dollars on equipment that I will not be able to get
film for
in two years or so.


Think of it this way, in 5 years your digital rebel will be worth maybe
$100
so what's the difference? And no 120 film isn't going to disappear in 2
years.


CORRECT! And I'll bet that digital Rebel will more likely be $25. There
will be bins of digital cameras at Goodwill just like there are bins of
old point-n-shoots now... if they will even take them!



Example, I just picked up a new old stock JVC mini DV video camera, 2 years
old originally MSRP was $1128, street price was $875, I just paid $165. Now
it's considered "Old school" and about 10% it's original price.
--

Stacey
 




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