The repairability issue Gordon raises is a double-edged sword IMHO. You
can take a broken mechanical part to a machinist and get another one made,
if at a high price. A donor camera or two can supply parts for many camera
repairs. Most mechanical cameras only need CLA and a few minor parts
(springs, foam..) to be good for another 20 years or so of amateur use ;-)
If you are like me, you have a spare nikkormat or two in storage, and an
extra kowa and bronica and hassy ELM bodies squirreled away for the far
future. I can only hope to live as long as the last of my stash of cameras
is likely to keep on working many years hence, with some TLC ;-)

By contrast, proprietary chips used in many electronic cameras means they
are unrepairable and unsupported as soon as the supplies of chips runs
out. And for digital cameras, I have found that it quickly costs more to
repair a 2 or 3 year old (Kodak) digital camera than it would cost to buy
a working replacement on EBAY, or an even better current model with higher
resolution ;-)

I think film will continue to be available in 120 format for my lifetime
anyway, but in fewer emulsions. We may have to have it scanned to print or
display.

If larger size chips - both in resolution to 64MP or larger, and with
larger sites for lower noise, so MF format in size - become mass produced,
the costs could easily be significantly less than today's $20k digital
backs. Just as we now have organic LED displays at much lower costs for
cellphones, we could have some kind of organic photosensor array which
could also produce a cost breakthru. But at the density where 16 MP is on
a 22mm square die, as with Foveon's CMOS process devices, Carver Mead the
designer has noted that they are already being limited by the basic
physics (size of sensor area, light wavelength size, noise levels etc.).
So a low noise 64MP sensor is rather more likely to be MF in size than
35mm in size. At that point, you need MF sized lenses to cover the image
(unless we get a "lenslet" breakthru there too) ;-)
----

Personally, I think we are about to see the "digital bubble" burst. The
low cost of the volume consumer 5MP and above cameras doesn't leave a lot
of margin for stores and distributors, nor a lot for mfgers to use to prop
up R&D for high end low sales volume products. And for most consumers, I
am not sure that more than 4 or 5 MP is going to be needed for mostly
emailed photos and webphotos anyway, yes? ;-) So will the majority of
consumers stick with their paid-for digicams, or will they keep
"upgrading" and replacing them every 12 or 18 months as the digital sales
model now requires? ;-) If they hold on to the good enough 4 and 5 MP
cameras, then the digital camera bubble seems ripe for bursting, yes? ;-)

grins bobm
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* Robert Monaghan POB 752182 Southern Methodist Univ. Dallas Tx 75275 *
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