Two points; for the vast majority of camera users, "good enough" would be
a 2MP camera in a cell-phone, as are now under test in Japan etc. (Thanks
to David L. on that update ;-) Since circa 90% of digital camera owners
don't make or buy prints of their digital photos (PMIA stats), but email
and webpost them, all the things we think of as digital photography is
really a modest sized part of the overall market, yes? I further suggest
that this digital photography market is a bubble which is about to burst!
As people can soon/now click and upload from their cell phone cameras, the
need for standalone digital cameras, camera to computer software/hardware,
and local printing docking ports etc. will be radically reduced in the
future as direct uploading becomes readily available. Most folks won't
want to learn photoshop XIV either ;-) Anybody who is "serious" about
digital photography will likely have already bought a digital camera (or
two or three, ahem). So the issue is can the majority of the current base
be enticed to keep upgrading to new digital cameras every 18 months -
because if the answer is no, then the digital "bubble" bursts! ;-)
"Good enough" also means that today's $200 4MP and soon 5-6+MP cameras
will be "good enough" for the vast majority of owners. They won't need to
update or buy a new digital camera every 18 months to print some 8x10"
prints - what they have will be just as good.
The 35mm pros haven't embraced the 16MP MF digital backs, so I agree with
the observation that 10-12 MP may be all that most pros need to meet their
customer's demands. If so, then where will the demand come to build the
volume of sales needed to justify the high costs of fabricating 24MP and
32 MP and larger chips? If high volumes can't be achieved, then costs will
continue to be much greater than the volume selling chips, right? I have
suggested that this "sweet spot" looks likely around 16MP, based on
nominal print sizes and printing requirements in most media and markets.
So I think we will see a transition away from digital photography cameras
to cell-phones with digicams that upload automatically for the masses.
This corresponds to the disposable camera market in 35mm film today, yes?
The 4-6 MP low cost ($199 down) digicams will provide higher quality for
prosumers. A relative handful of pros will use their now considerable
investments in high end digital bodies (with 35mm SLR lenses?) at 11-16
MP. The question is whether a driving application (military?) can be found
which will require larger (MF) format digital sensors at 64 MP or above
which will reduce the costs (or cover R&D costs..) and provide the volumes
needed to enable a low cost digital back market for MF gear?
======
Keep in mind, however, that the MF market is rather small, only circa
50,000 units (japanese made, anyway) worldwide in early 2000 time frame
for both MF and LF cameras (see JCIA stats at
http://medfmt.8k.com/third/economics.html#99). So it doesn't take a very
large professional and serious amateur market worldwide to absorb such
camera numbers, esp. given many developing nations.
A worldwide pro market of 250,000 pros buying a camera every 5 years would
do it - but too many pros are abandoning MF for digital, yes? ;-( But a
half million serious amateur photographers worldwide, each buying a camera
every ten years, would also keep the current MF market going, yes? In
practice, a combination of pros and amateurs would likely to be buying MF
cameras in the future as in the past.
If anything, the exit of Fuji from making a number of their models, the
exit of Bronica/Tamron on several of their MF SLR offerings, and the
concerns about both Hasselblad/Hong-Kong and Rollei, plus the possible
end of production of Pentax 67 and Kiev production lines etc. per some
rumors, well we may have too much of a shakeout here already ;-) ;-)
I think one key is Mamiya/USA (in USA ads) approach, first cutting the
entry level costs with a 645E camera (made in china..) at half the
previous entry level costs (i.e., $750-ish on promotion), with the future
ability to adapt a digital back, should such become available cheaply.
Frankly, the Kiev cameras haven't filled the niche of a good entry level
camera for newbies, and the chinese TLRs are wildly overpriced on their
initial (3 el) models with many Q/C issues as well. The used japanese
camera lines are generally long in the tooth (20+ years). The newer AF MF
cameras are ultra-pricey Contax and Hassy/Rollei models, likely to give
sticker shock to 35mm shooters wanting to trade up.
My blind lens tests suggest this is hard to understand, given that
relatively modest cost MF lenses (as on a $75 new Chinese DF-4 SLR) can
produce surprisingly decent results. The labor costs on the Mamiya 645E
must be low enough to make $750 US$ MF SLR feasible.
I think a low cost MF entry level camera is the key to attracting people
to MF photography. But where are the reliable under $1k new MF cameras?
The lack of ads for MF with only 10,000 or so sales worldwide, per major
brand, makes it hard to compete against a million+ nikon SLRs etc. ;-)
Finally, I would like to see a magazine (perhaps shutterbug, but they have
been seduced by the dark side of the digital force) promoting medium
format and large format photography as an upgrade for 35mm users etc.
Perhaps this is where the mfgers can get together to support with ads such
a venture? IF they don't, it will be hard for them to complain about the
lack of sales in MF in the major US/Canada and European markets, yes?
my $.02 again ;-)
bobm
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* Robert Monaghan POB 752182 Southern Methodist Univ. Dallas Tx 75275 *
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