Phil,

Photography came into its own in the late 19th century, but oil paints,
watercolors, etc., are still sold.

The telephone did not replace writing letters. Stationery, pens, and
inks are still sold.

Movies were invented, but people still go to plays, concerts, and operas.

TV came along, but both radio and movies survived.

Simply put, digital imaging is not a replacement technology, it is an
additional technology.

Also, there are still a few billion people in this world for whom film
will be both technologically and economically more feasible than
electronic digital processing for years to come.

Bob
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Phil Glaser wrote:

Some of this may be old news to some of you, but I just found this
story about Kodak reducing manufacturing capacity and laying of 15,000
employees: http://www.usatoday.com/tech/techinv...dak-cuts_x.htm
The story poses some interesting questioins about Kodak's future

Meanwhile, NPR did a piece this weekend on the "digital revolution":
http://www.npr.org/features/feature.php?wfId=1616953.

The prologue to the NPR story on their website says that ". . .
Eastman Kodak will stop selling photographic film . . ." This
statement is obviously an exageration and misrepresentation of the
trend in the market and at Kodak, but it does get me thinking about
what it will be like over the next decade or two as digital eclipses
film as the medium of choice for most amatures and for many areas of
professional photography. The economics of it are such that, as
digital equipment prices fall, film will become the more expensive
option even at today's equipment and material prices. Digital probably
already is the least expensive in a certain range of quality (I mean:
if you can do with low resolution and don't need to do a lot of
creative manipulation [requiring photoshop], digital is definitely
already cheaper).

So how will it be to procure film in the next 10-20 years? Can we
imagine a day where Kodak sells little if any film? What about
companies like Ilford and Agfa and Fuji? Sure, they will stay in
business because the demand for film will probably always be
sufficient to make it a niche market. But will reduction in demand
lead to an increase in prices for film, so that, even with cheap
darkroom equipment and film cameras around, film could become a lot
more expensive than digital? Will there be fewer choices? Will film
manufacturers continue to innovate? Or will it be the opposite: will
film innovate even more to compete with digital?. . .

--phil