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Old May 25th 04, 02:06 AM
Gordon Moat
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Default ideal cameras? Omega 120 surprise convertible lens RF?

"Q.G. de Bakker" wrote:

Gordon Moat wrote:

Plus, of course, it (Rollei AF) is not the only option beckoning those
people who do still have money to spend...


Which seems like thriving in a niche market could be an answer. The

problem
then becomes what volume of sales will sustain a niche? Large format is

already
a niche market, yet there is still diversity, just as an example.


LF is dead already. It's just that those corpses are pretty well balmed. ;-)


Of course, the funny thing is that large format films sales (at least Fuji and
Polaroid numbers) has increased. However, that does not mean more people are
buying cameras.


MF has been a niche market since way back when. The trouble isn't supplying
a niche market. The trouble is that people occupying that niche are leaving.
And that hurts.


Sure, they are leaving because they are getting older. There is an ageing
population of users, and very few new (or younger) users. That is why I spoke
about advertising and awareness. While you choose to think there is no point, I
think a small effort might show some results. I am not writing about having
medium format become big volume, nor big business, and I would never expect
that to happen.



Take Hasselblad: a small company, yet doing very well selling in numbers
that are absolutely nothing compared to, say, Nikon.


Why is success must be judged on high volume? Are Linhof and Horseman not
successful because they don't sell half a million cameras a year? If volume was
the only criteria for success, then Sony is the "winner" or "best" of all
camera companies.


Recently, they decided they could no longer survive without the (financial)
support of some large company.
How long will that work should the MF market not recover from the current
dip?


Hasselblad has a name, and could become a niche luxury product. I would expect
the current tooling to produce limited run examples in the colour finish of
your choice. Perhaps they can turn some of the bodies into handbags, or makeup
cases.



Rollei have put all their eggs in one basket: new customers would come, and
sales go up again, if only they could offer modern AF technology.
Now they *do* offer AF technology. And? Right: nothing!


Well, Rollei has an extensive line of compact cameras (many digital) that trade
on the value of their brand name. I think Rollei will survive, though their
medium format line could end up a built to order prestige product (luxury
again). So the company should survive, though the medium format line might
become marginalized. If the medium format line becomes rare, or scarce, yet the
company survives off compact cameras, does that mean they were unsuccessful?



The Japanese companies are a bit larger, and perhaps operate differently
too. But how long can you not sell a product and keep up the pretence things
are going well, even when the company's live does not depend on it?

A niche is fine, as long as it is not empty.


Okay, so if the slightly older industry sales figures from Japanese medium
format manufacturers indicated only 200000 unit sales a year world wide, how
low can that figure go to still have a market? Would 50000 new camera sales a
year (one fourth) still be a viable market?



The only retro photography trend I see, and mostly southern California

(and
some other cites in the US), is more younger people buying used film

cameras.
These could be considered accessories to match trendy retro style clothing
(especially anything with "That 70's" look), though the funny thing is

that
many of these used camera buyers actually use their gear. While they may

not
fit into enthusiast, nor consumer models, many of them like the aspect of
controlling the camera, rather than the automation controlling them. This

is
the "technology backlash" reaction to too much technology in everyday

life.
Retro is popular because it reminds one of simpler times, even though that
memory is created in those that did not live in those times.


That trend has not been seen this side of the pond. I wonder if it will
last.


Well, it is hitting about the six year point now, so I wonder the same thing.
As these people get older, will they hold onto the same habits . . . also, will
the next generation follow the same trends . . . only time will tell. As for
this trend exporting to other parts of the world, I can only hope that some
aspects of American trends stay in the US.



If anything, traditional brands most associated with "the good old days"

of
photography are in danger of becoming extinct. The only true, and

strong,
trend in photography today is that digi-thingy.


True, based on volume sales, or even number of articles. Of course, the

reality
is about as true as the "paperless office". I think wireless imaging will

soon
become the next big thing, and the future volume leader of "photography"

(if
you can still call that photography).


The paperless office we were promised has not materialized, no. But where
are those typewriters and blue paper?


Indeed, computers are just glorified type writers. ;-)


. . . . . . .

At the moment, the reality is that consumers want convenience (when did they
ever not want that?) and fun. And that currently means digital. And not just
in photography.


Sure, the fast food mentality. It might be the biggest trend, but not everyone
follows it. We see this in many products, with some people thinking anything
new is better (or progress), while other wish to maintain control. I hate
analogies, but a good example is that you can still buy a car with a manual
transmission, and not just a cheap one.


Why not
liquidate now, and get a last profit off their assets?


What value is there in their assets, they being MF manufacturing
infrastructure, when there is no demand for ?


Factories, equipment, assembly facilities, and other business support systems
are assets that can be sold off for use in other endeavours, and not just for
cameras. Even then, some of that equipment could be used to produce cheaper
consumer products, even cheap consumer cameras. The cameras that are already
manufactured could be sold off to clear inventory, and likely to find buyers at
the much reduced liquidation prices.



Why did the distributor
for Hasselblad buy the company?


Good example. Hasselblad wanted to go public, i.e. cash in on their
"assets". That went sour when the MF market went downhill.
Doesn't mean that some other company would not want to show off with a
"luxury brand of great repute". They do not need a sensible return ontheir
investment as much as bread and butter investors. There's posing value to
consider...


Like Hermes buying controlling stock of Leica. Of course, this could be the
luxury niche market for medium format too. Leica also license their name for
many cheaper products, including P&S digital cameras. It might only be a matter
of time before we hear of a Leica lens on a camera phone.

So perhaps the Hasselblad P&S is soon to appear. Or more coloured leather
cameras sold as luxury goods. Maybe they can sell one with every Rolex as a
package deal.



Why did Tamron buy Bronica? Why does Mamiya
still advertise? Why did Rollei and Contax make autofocus cameras?


Hope springs eternal.
If you're, say, a MF manufacturer, you can only manufacture MF. If you
don't, you're not a MF manufactuer anymore. You'll be nothing. Right?


You lost me on that one. Rollei make many P&S and compact film and digital
cameras. Does that mean they are nothing? Is it bad to survive on cheap
consumer product sales?


Leica still make cameras, nor scarfes and handbags, do they not?


Have you seen the Hermes Leica? Looks suspiciously like a Handbag, except it
only holds one roll of film. ;-)


. . . . . . If you compare to
the
cost of a scanner, around $2000, that is the competition for digital

backs, and
I don't see them ever getting close. With that in mind, they (MF

companies)
should liquidate assets this year.


Well, if they do not get prices down...
I'll come and tell you "told you so" in, oh..., a year.
;-)


Hey, you might be right. This might be the last year in the history of medium
format new camera sales. Rollei still have P&S cameras, and compact digital
cameras, so I expect they might be the only survivor. Everyone else will be
making Swiss chronographs . . . err, I mean cameras . . . we shall see.

Ciao!

Gordon Moat
A G Studio
http://www.allgstudio.com