Neil Gould wrote:

By leaving, do you mean that they are selling off their MF gear in favor
of another format (e.g. digital), or that the retirement rate exceeds the
recruitment rate? If the former, then I think one would have to determine
whether these folks are no longer shooting MF, or just unloaded part of
their gear to finance the new format. If the latter, then only time will
determine whether that is a concern.

I'm talking about people buying new digital stuff, whether or not they can
still get a buck for their MF stuff.
Some even have given up the idea that they might see a single penny in
return for their obsoleted MF equipment at all. Their decision was "too
late" they say. I see that happening around me a lot.
People remember the demise of 35 mm. Many were left holding rather expensive
35 mm cameras impossible to get rid of unless abandoned behind some tree in
a quiet part of some distant wood on a dark and moonless night.

So i guess the thing i mean is the first of your options, but without the
"we just do it so we can raise some money by selling MF gear" stipulation.
;-)

I'm sure that Sinar is also not selling in numbers that compare with
Nikon. Are they worried? I doubt it.

Oh, yes they are!
Have you not noticed what they have been doing the last 10 - 20 years
already?

They tried to find something to do to their cameras that would cach people's
eyes, hoping to keep ahead of a shrinking market.
They even let Colani design the LF-camera of the future. It looked weird.
What;s more, you could not take photo's with it, let alone have movemenets
etc. They finally designed a computerized LF camera.
Oh, and they did feel the need to play along and produce a tiny thing of the
"X-Acto"/FlexBody/"what-have-you" class when that "wave" came. The wave has
past.

All these attempts to do something to keep the market alive failed. All
their "new inventions" have disapperaed again. Now they abandoned LF
photography (yes, they still sell LF cameras. When asked) and set their
hopes on (wait for it...) digital and mirror housings that can go between
their digital back and 35 mm format lenses.

Bye, bye LF... leaving Sinar worrying their socks of.

Rollei is a bit different from Hasselblad, in that they offer a fairly
wide range of MF products. If AF bombs, that doesn't necessarily doom the
rest of their line. Frankly, in a market where every other MF company
offers AF, Rollei had little choice. I don't know what their sales
expectations are.

If anything Rollei offers a less wide range of MF products. But actually
both companies do compare well.
Anyway, no, if AF bombs, Rollei is in deep sh*t. Again...
Now how is Rollei's AF thingy doing again?

Well, if they do not get prices down...
I'll come and tell you "told you so" in, oh..., a year.
;-)

I'm not sure I understand your response, Q.G., but digital backs for MF
have many moving targets that they have to nail to be practical. They have
to exceed the performance of scanners as well as the price point.
Otherwise, small format digital will eat their lunch. [...]

That's what i'm saying all along.
So let me repeat another bit: if small format digital will eat MF digital
back manufacturer's lunch, MF camera manufacturers will starve too.
And the moment somebody's lunch will be pinched by someone else is upon us.
It is now, not next year, not next month, now that MF digital back
manufacturers must react.

And that's the length and breadth of it.