David J. Littleboy wrote:

Hmm. I wonder what the market for a, say US$1000, 32MP (more realistic
than
64MP) MF back would be given a US$1500 10D Mk3 at 16MP?

[...]

So who's going to buy the MF back?

Many who already have the MF cameras plus lenses and only need the back to
go digital.
I would in a shot. See, i don't have any of the required bits of equipment
you would need besides the Canon body to make it work.

On the other hand, people who do have the necessary paraphenalia would be
foolish to get the back instead of the 10D.

That's the point i am trying to make all along: as soon as we have decided
not to wait for MF-digital prices to come down, and spend the money on
digital 35 mm instead, there is no turning back. MF will have lost. No
redemption, ever.

Do you really need grain sniffable
13x19s? Is 212 dpi enough better than 150 dpi in your 20x30s that you'll
give up the convenience of the 35mm system?

Well, i would like the 32 MP you promised me at the price you mentioned,
yes. And i wouldn't mind that i then would still need to use my current MF
gear, no.

I have (not very often, mind you) produced some prints that took every pixel
i could muster using a 4000 dpi scanner on my MF negs, with not a single one
(well, maybe two or three ;-)) to spare.
It's nice to be able to do that when needed. And if it can be done for no
more money than a less MP digital 35 mm camera, why ever not?

One thing is very important though. you mentioned lenses: any MF back would
have to be full frame. Adding the expense of having to buy (mostly
non-existing) extra-wide MF lenses would not be to the advantage of digital
MF's chances.

I doubt that will work. Where is the market for a Mamiya 645E?

It's an attractive camera for MF newbies. Given that you get a real camera
with a guarantee from a reliable mfr, it makes a lot more sense than Kiev.
Lenses are inexpensive, plentiful, and widely available used.

Yes, but that's all about what the camera is (or rather, would be). And a
nice camera it may be.
But, again, where are the people queuing to buy that thing...?

To be a success, to even be the thing that will save MF, you would also need
to find people willing to invest in such a thing rather than invest in 35 mm
based digital. Being attractive in itself is not enough. It must still be
attractive when put side to side next to the competition.

And there's the rub...

An I'll repeat myself: It's far worse than you think. Given the choice
between a free 32MP back for a Mamiya 645AFD and a $1500 10D Mk 3, the
number of new 645AFD sales that will result will be zero.

I doubt that. A lot. The 35 mm based thingies will outsell the MF thing
easy. But 35 mm based thingies always have. It's the "installed base" that
counts: the market for a cheap digital MF thing will be about as large as
that.

Anyway, only time will tell. I can't wait to see what answer MF manufactuers
have produced. And/or how many will announce they will resign from the
competition.
Perhaps upcoming Photokina will be "the moment" of truth. We'll see.