digital isn't film ;-) with film, you can simply cut the large rolls of
film into 120 rollfilm, or 4x5" or 8x10" sheets or 35mm film, as needed.

With digital, you have to build multi-billion dollar IC fab plants to make
a 16MP or even more for a 64MP CMOS sensor chip. You can't afford to build
a multi-billion dollar 64MP sensor making plant, or spend tens of millions
on integrating that 64MP sensor into a digital camera back with software
etc., unless you have a market that can repay those investment costs.

If national semi's CEO is right, and they can sell 100 million annually of
Foveon style CMOS 16MP sensor chips, then they can get the costs down to
$10 or less (even $2-3 per chip, making "disposable 16MP digital cameras"
feasible to compete with today's disposable $10 film cameras. Again, see
http://www.dpreview.com/news/0009/00...foveon16mp.asp article etc.

The same isn't true of a 64MP sensor, for reasons I suggested. That is why
you can't say what happens with cell phone cameras and 35mm DSLRs is
unconnected to what we can do with digital in the MF niche market. MF is
niche market (50,000 film cameras sold per year worldwide, maybe 1-2% of
them with 16MP digital backs costing $10-25k, yes?). You can't justify
billion dollar plants and tens of millions in R&D on digital back sales in
MF (look at costs of adapting existing sensors in today's digital backs
($25k..) vs. costs of sensors in somewhat higher volume Kodak DSLRs for
35mm format etc.

So nobody is going to make multi-millions or billions in investments in
order to provide MF users with low cost 16/32/64+MP digital backs ;-)

So we _are_ dependent on what the masses do, because IC sensor mfgering is
a really mass production process. It costs as much to build a IC plant to
make a thousand 64MP chips as 100 million 16MP chips, but that implies a
$1 million cost per 64MP chip vs $10 for " " ;-) ;-) Can we afford that?

Is there a mass volume application which justifies and demands 32MP and
64MP chips? So far even pro photographers seem satisfied with 8 MP and 11
MP DSLRs vs 16MP digital backs at $25k or so. Unless there is such a
demand and market, I doubt 64 MP chips will be developed.

In short, QGdeB's argument that what happens in the mass consumer market
doesn't limit us on the MF niche market is false, because sensor chips
require huge investments in R&D and IC fab plants which mandate huge sales
volumes to get the costs down.

I don't see any such huge mass market or demand for 64MP sized devices, so
you? If there is one, then the good news is that we can probably hope for
low cost 64MP sensors of MF sizes which can be adapted for MF digital
backs. These 64MP sensors probably won't be compatible with 35mm smaller
formats (cf. Fuji's 40+x51+mm chip for 22 MP sinar backs etc.).

So high end (22+MP) digital photography may be the preserve of MF or
larger systems? The problem is consumers and even pro photographers are
happy enough at 8 or 11MP to make 16MP cameras a likely "sweet spot". So
there won't be any photographic demand for larger resolution digital
cameras past 16 MP or so?

The caveat here is that it may be possible to synthesize a 32MP or larger
equiv. sensor using multiple cheaper 16MP chips (or a 48 MP in 35mm format
using tri color filtering etc.). But a native 64MP chip does not look to
have the manufacturing volumes needed to make them cheap due to lack of
demand?

my $.02+ '-)

bobm
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